Whittle, Cruz, and Polls
November 7, 2015 6 Comments
Bill Whittle on Ted Cruz and media bias.
You know that may explain something. Have you noticed, as I have, that in the age of Obama, we conservatives/Republicans (whatever, whichever, and don’t forget right libertarians either) can’t seem to win a national election, but we have something like 75% of the state legislatures, most of the governorships, and everything else? Could this be the effect of the media’s completely unbecoming (and beclowning) love for Obama? I think it might be.
We’ll see, if the presidential candidates can manage to quit thinking that they can ingratiate themselves with the hostile media, and play through (around, over, and under) them, to the people, we may see both the demise of some very rotten edifices and a fresh new breeze in politics.
Frankly I have no problem with biased press outlets, they always have been. Don’t believe me? Look into the election of 1800. Our problem today is that they are all biased one way. Nor does it help that they are catastrophically wrong, unAmerican, anti-Christian, and a few other things, not to mention very, very intolerant.
I think this may very well be connected as well
For the most part, with some notable exceptions, the polls have been pretty accurate predictors of presidential and midterm elections. That was until the recent midterm elections in the United States in 2014. While they predicted the GOP would pick up some senate seats with an outside chance, if everything went right, of taking over the Senate, none of the polls predicted the tsunami wave by the GOP in not just winning the senate easily with room to spare, but also with big gains by the GOP in the House of Representatives and in pickups in the state houses and governorships.
The reliability of the polls was questioned by some, but not by many as you could say one election, as big as it was, do not the polls make. But then you had a couple of big foreign elections that were missed by the pollsters and missed in a huge way.
In March of 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party won in a landslide victory, and re-elected for an un-precedented 4th time Bibi Netanyahu as Prime Minister, that no poll showed would happen. In fact, every single poll in Israel just days before the election had Netanyahu and Likud losing and losing in a big way.
Then in May of 2015, you had polls showing that in Great Britain there was a very tight race for Prime Minister with a good chance the Conservative Party was about to be thrown out of power. What happened, a huge win for the conservative party and re-election of David Cameron as Prime Minister.
So, beginning with the 2014 Midterm elections, and continuing with major elections in Israel and Great Britain in 2015, the polls have been not just wrong, but not even close to predicting the correct results.
You might conclude that it shows you can’t rely on the polls in a major general election not just in the United States but around the world. No, that would be the wrong conclusion. That is one of the secondary conclusions you might surmise from this downward slide of accuracy by major pollsters but not the correct one.
There is one common thread that those variances of what the election results showed with the polling results before hand. In the United States midterms, and in Israel, and in Great Britain, the pollsters were wrong and wrong in a big way, all in one direction. Their polls were all off in determining the strength of the conservatives [party’s/individual candidates] in those countries and in overstating the strength of the liberals [party’s/individual candidates]. Could that possibly be just an amazing coincidence or indicative of skewed polling results that we will be seeing in future elections? Fool us with one bad polling result, shame on you. Fool us with 3 bad polling results, and we still believe in you, shame on us.
Do you follow my reasoning here? Again we have a business based and linked to both the national governments, and the corrupt press, who pays their bills. Yes, there are new difficulties in polling, such as so many people no longer having landline telephones (and others). But while that could well affect accuracy, one would expect it to effect it in both directions, but that’s not what we’re seeing, is it? It’s always favoring the more liberal (American sense) candidate, and never the more conservative (Classically liberal). And so as it becomes an increasingly inaccurate tool, something will have to change like, I don’t know, real reporting, maybe!