Polling, and Blue Waves

David Catron at The American Spectator has a most interesting article up about the coming alleged ‘Blue Wave’. In short, it comes down to, don’t believe the polls, not any of them.

Let’s begin with discredited forecasters. The above-quoted CNN story and most other media reports about the resurgent blue wave relied heavily on a recent analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which changed 17 House ratings in favor of the Democrats. CNNand the rest of the media reportedthis as if it had come from the lips of the Delphic Oracle. But Sabato’s prognostications invariably overestimate Democratic prospects. In 2014, for example, the Crystal Ball’s projections did so in every category — House, Senate, and Governorships. They did it again in 2016, as the Richmond Times Dispatch gleefully reports:

The final Crystal Ball had Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House with 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump.… The Crystal Ball also projected that the Democrats and Republicans each would have 50 U.S. Senate seats and that U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, as vice president, would have the tie-breaking vote.

Yeah, it’s gonna be an early night. And it was when they were all proved wrong. But we got that wonderful video of the news anchors breaking down in tears, and our country back.

Mark Penn, chairman of the Harris Poll and former pollster to President Clinton from 1995 to 2000, provides a description of the polling business that few pollsters or media types will find flattering. In a recent column for the Hill, he indicted the “pundit-polling-news establishment” for studiously ignoring the blindingly obvious lessons of 2016. In his estimation, the major polling firms and news organizations to whom they purport to provide objective data have made no meaningful changes in the methodology that led them to miss the seismic shift in voter attitudes that led to President Trump’s 2016 victory:

Almost two years later, very little has changed in polling and analysis at major institutions and news media. If anything, the polling has drifted even further from reality when you look at the questions being asked and, more importantly, the questions not being asked. You don’t need polls to see the America you live in. You need polls to understand the part of America you don’t know.

The questions matter. One will get significantly different results if one asks, “Should American immigration authorities rip babies from their mother’s arms?” As opposed to, “Should American immigration laws be enforced as written?”

And that is why polling is so inaccurate, people may, or may not lie to the pollster (the so-called ‘Shy Tory’ thing). They may, or may not, care about any given subject. They may, or may not, almost anything. There’s no check on any of this, what is used for a sample also matters, and on and on.

And that is not good news for the Democrats. They can’t win a majority in either house of Congress based on media happy talk about public opinion polls that tell you more about who’s paying for them than what the voters are actually thinking. Which brings us to all those “news” stories about the generic ballot and the allegedly imminent blue wave. Does any of it really mean anything? Probably not. As Ed Kilgore, by no means a conservative, pointed out over the weekend, “At this point in 2014, Democrats led in most generic congressional polls, but then lost the national House popular vote by nearly 6 percent.”

Is there anything, anywhere said by a Democrat candidate since the Trump election that appeals to even a cursorily regular American trying to make a living? I can’t think of one.

Second, as a report from the Brennan Center for Justice confirms, the Democrats can’t win by merely matching GOP turnout:

Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives. To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades.

But frankly, I don’t believe that either. There is only one poll that matters, the one taken on November 6th. The only proper course is to vote for what you believe and hope and pray that things will be alright. So far, we’ve survived.

And this year, we’ve got a real mess to sort out, between the GOPe or RINOs (at this point one could say the Koch faction or the globalist cabal) and the Trump supporters, and then there are the Democrats. It’s a third party without the label, really, but it’s up to us to sort it out. But for me, for the first time in my life, I will vote a straight Republican ticket, not that they are that good, mind. The Dems are that bad.

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16 Responses to Polling, and Blue Waves

  1. the unit says:

    Uh ok, polls say blue wave coming. But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says Kansas dems will flip the seat red.
    MSM says statement a “understandable” mistake.
    I “misunderestimated” ignorance of all three mentioned above. 🙂

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Scoop says:

    Absotively! The Democrats are that bad. I have never voted for a Democrat except in the rare local races where some of our local Democrats are more conservative than the Republicans they faced. But on the national and even State Elections they have proved themselves unworthy of support by any American that wants to preserve this Democratic Republic.

    Liked by 3 people

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