Winning, so far, Anyway

This is interesting and actually some good news, for a change. I don’t know about you, but I could use some.

As all the world knows, the US and China are having, if not a full-scale trade war, some pretty serious trade skirmishes. So how is it going?

Pretty well actually, according to Chriss Street witing for American Thinker. Read it all. a lot of what I say here was derived from it.

Mexico and Canada were America’s top two trade partners in the first six months of 2019 as the escalating China-U.S. Trade War booted China to third place.

With China falling behind Mexico and Canada, President Trumps’ Trade War has succeeded in making North America’s revised trading bloc larger in population and GDP than the 28-nation European Union, according to Geopolitical Futures.

“I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN”

Six months later, U.S. importers paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, a 74 percent spike compared to a year ago, despite a slight decline in import values. About $3.4 billion of those tariffs were imposed by President Trump, according to a study titled ‘Tariffs Hurt the Heartland’ by The Trade Partnership, a globalist Washington D.C. consulting firm.

The report claims Trump’s tariffs are highly inflationary by forcing consumers to pay an extra $4.4 billion for apparel, $2.5 billion for footwear, $3.7 billion for toys and $1.6 billion for household appliances.” But U.S. inflation in the first half of 2019 averaged just 1.7 percent, down from 2.4 percent last year, according to the U.S. Inflation Calculator.

The biggest key to holding back inflation has been the rapid global redeployment of manufacturing supply chains from China to Mexico, Canada, and even the United States. The repositioning speed demonstrates that analysts in the New York City to Washington D.C. corridor that predicted an inflationary spike had no clue regarding multinational businesses always having “disaster recovery” plans for alternative suppliers.

Every business, including the kid that mows your lawn, knows that lesson. Who knows what may happen to the gas station that you buy your mower fuel from. But it’s apparently over the head of The Trade Partnership. Not much of a surprise there, when ideology matters more than reality, stupid things happen.

In any case, one point the author makes is that while we often think of Mexico as a third world country, it actually is not. Depending on how you figure, it is nearly as large as Australia. One of the strengths of the USMCA as a trade bloc is that there is no attempt to align standards such as causes a lot of trouble in the EU.

That includes free trade agreements that steer jobs to low wage areas, and that very thing has cost the UK a lot of good jobs and is in fact, one of the things that are pushing Brexit.

By the way, the USMCA’s GDP (a somewhat flawed measurement, but it will serve) is $22.1 trillion compared with the EU’s $17.3 trillion.

What it seems that the President is offering the UK when it leaves the EU is some sort of association with the USMCA, which would add the UK’s $2.6 trillion (the fifth largest in the world) to the USMCA while removing it from the EU. Using current numbers that would make the USMCA’s GDP $24.7 trillion,

The EU continues its slide into mediocrity and uselessness.

About that trade war – we’re winning.

About NEO
Lineman, Electrician, Industrial Control technician, Staking Engineer, Inspector, Quality Assurance Manager, Chief Operations Officer

13 Responses to Winning, so far, Anyway

  1. audremyers says:

    I thought this was an interesting speech

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Scoop says:

    Although our financial strength for a trade war is superior to that of China it is not all good economic news. We still run a trade deficit with China, Mexico, Germany, Canada, Japan and a bunch of others as well. And that is only one type of deficit that we are fighting for at the moment. Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is the other.

    Not sure where we will end up by the end of this year but we were hovering somewhere between a deficit of 4.6 to 5 per cent of our GDP which ain’t much better than Uganda and about the same as Japan (and their economy isn’t that hot).

    If we do not get rid of the tax and spend democrats and replace our tax and spend republicans we are dropping toward a black hole that can only be fixed by a total restructuring (a new fiat currency is usually one of those means). Right now the dollar is strong, thanks to our strong economy (and Trump) but a hiccup right now might have the barber cut our throats whilst trying to get a simple shave.

    Good news yes . . . but it ain’t all good news. We don’t need to declare victory until we throw the financially incompetents out of Congress.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Nicholas says:

    I hope to see our relations blossom as they did in Reagan’s day. There is much we can do to bless one another, and I look forward to seeing not only trade, but investment.

    Like

  4. Jonathan Strange says:

    Importers do not pay tarriffs, they pass them on to consumers.
    Increased costs of specific goods, often termed as inflation, is not directly related to currency inflation. This is basic economics.
    No respected economist thinks the US is winning the trade war, it flies against every bit of Conservative economic thought.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Nicholas says:

      Would you describe yourself as influenced by the Austrian School of economics, particularly von Mises, Rothbard, et al?

      Liked by 1 person

      • the unit says:

        Do like my hardware store when I wanted a electrical wall outlet replacement for my 12 gauge wires and their’s fitted 14. Humor the old man!
        I’m classic conservative. Happy mostly with the way things are going. Not reactionary for the # 44, 8 years. 🙂

        Liked by 2 people

        • NEO says:

          🙂 The screw terminals take u to #10. If you want to put 12 in the rear terminals buy a 20A outlet, I never use them unless screw tightened anyway, seen too many fail, which is why the code changed.

          Liked by 1 person

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