Is it 1919 again?

This, from Chicagoboyz, is both long and quite unpleasant reading. For all that, I fear it may be an accurate forecast.

The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, testing, public health institutional credibility, some e-mails evaluating the CDC and our elites, and my personal analysis of same after the top line infection numbers and headlines.

The SARS-CoV2 virus and it’s COVID-19 virgin fields infection seems to have a top line R(0) of between three and 6.7 — that is one person infects near seven people on average — because there are repeated “super spreader” events where one person slimed an institution with a lot of close contact and then the fomite contamination of that institutional setting causes everyone present to get the disease. Examples thus far include the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, a pair of prisons in China, and multiple hospitals in China and now South Korea. The rate of growth of the COVID-19 pandemic is such that we will be fighting it on a very large scale in a few weeks (no more than 10) in every nation world wide with the public and private medical institutions, societal resources, and people we have right now, with all their flaws. And not what we wish they were, but will never have. There simply isn’t going to be time and energy for blame games when issues of daily survival break upon us all.

Top line, there are currently 78,986 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,468 fatalities as of 23 February 2020 at 11:52 a.m. ET on the BNO News corona virus traking site ( China, Taiwan Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, and Iran all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease. See multiple charts attached and headline summary.

Do check the charts and read the rest. He makes a pretty good case that the ‘Versailles Class’ who haven’t a damned clue what is happening in the country (and that is just as, and maybe more, true in Britain and Europe) have not the first clue what is happening. And yes, that does include the CDC. Read the article to see why. I think he makes an excellent case.

Over at The American Conservative, Rod Dreher adds to the gloom.

A reader sends this story from Yahoo! Finance:

Just how severely has the coronavirus curtailed cargo flows to and from China, the world’s most important trade engine? Chinese government data is both after-the-fact and suspect, but Boston-based big-data company CargoMetrics is now providing a real-time answer.

CargoMetrics has spent the past decade amassing and analyzing ship-movement data, discerning patterns and developing quantitative predictive algorithms. It’s now bringing its powers to bear on what’s happening in China.

The company has just publicly released data that sheds new light on what transpired in the weeks following Chinese New Year (CNY). To better understand what the numbers mean, FreightWaves interviewed CargoMetrics CEO Scott Borgerson and Dan Brutlag, head of trading signal and data products.

You should read the whole thing, but these two charts tells you the basic fact: the Chinese economy has all but shut down:

He notes that 90 percent of China’s imports and exports move by sea.

But wait, there’s more:

Now, look at that exports chart. You know what is not being exported? Medications and medical supplies. From Axios:

About 150 prescription drugs — including antibiotics, generics and some branded drugs without alternatives — are at risk of shortage if the coronavirus outbreak in China worsens, according to two sources familiar with a list of at-risk drugs compiled by the Food and Drug Administration.

Why it matters: China is a huge supplier of the ingredients used to make drugs that are sold in the U.S. If the virus decreases China’s production capability, Americans who rely on the drugs made from these ingredients could be in trouble.

What they’re saying: The FDA declined to comment on the list, but said in a statement that it’s “keenly aware that the outbreak could impact the medical product supply chain,” and has devoted additional resources toward identifying potential vulnerabilities to U.S. medical products stemming specifically from the outbreak.

The Doctor, who has been providing readers of this blog with his analysis, writes of the Axios report:

The word is finally getting out…..and soon the run on meds will begin in earnest.  All I can say is this is not a joke. We have had shortages before — and I have received these pharmacy committee memos before — actually this has become rather commonplace since we shipped our industry to China – and India.  All that being said, in my 30 years of being a physician, I have not one time ever received a memo with more than 40 drugs listed out by name.  Always previously, there had just been one problem drug that was being addressed.  The word “ration” was not used in my memo this week,  but it was certainly implied.  And now I see this online today.

Read the rest, but there is not much more to say. It’s time to pay attention, the globalist birds are coming home to roost, and exporting our jobs, especially in critical sectors like health care, looks really stupid all of a sudden. I wonder how much more profitable it is to save a nickel on x quantity or have the demand shrink x+y. I don’t know, but I know where the death toll can be laid, and it isn’t on your local drug store.

In the meantime:

Forewarned is forearmed.

About Neo
Lineman, Electrician, Industrial Control technician, Staking Engineer, Inspector, Quality Assurance Manager, Chief Operations Officer

12 Responses to Is it 1919 again?

  1. audremyers says:

    Thanks for the impending nightmare ridden sleep for the next -however long.

    Sort of makes one wonder what’s so wrong with isolationism.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Scoop says:

    And now for one of the earliest articles I read concerning the global effects and perhaps the origin of the coronavirus. A vert interesting read.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. the unit says:

    I’ve read all this for the last few weeks. And seen pictures and videos of measures being taken.
    What are they spraying in the streets? Fleet?
    Done used my Garfield ‘toon yesterday. 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  4. the unit says:

    I’ve read this greed message from wherever it started a long time ago. Funny, that I’ve hardly ever seen it. Guess tell me who your friends are kinda like. 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

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