Whittle, Cruz, and Polls

Bill Whittle on Ted Cruz and media bias.

You know that may explain something. Have you noticed, as I have, that in the age of Obama, we conservatives/Republicans (whatever, whichever, and don’t forget right libertarians either) can’t seem to win a national election, but we have something like 75% of the state legislatures, most of the governorships, and everything else? Could this be the effect of the media’s completely unbecoming (and beclowning) love for Obama? I think it might be.

We’ll see, if the presidential candidates can manage to quit thinking that they can ingratiate themselves with the hostile media, and play through (around, over, and under) them, to the people, we may see both the demise of some very rotten edifices and a fresh new breeze in politics.

Frankly I have no problem with biased press outlets, they always have been. Don’t believe me? Look into the election of 1800. Our problem today is that they are all biased one way. Nor does it help that they are catastrophically wrong, unAmerican, anti-Christian, and a few other things, not to mention very, very intolerant.

I think this may very well be connected as well

For the most part, with some notable exceptions, the polls have been pretty accurate predictors of presidential and midterm elections. That was until the recent midterm elections in the United States in 2014. While they predicted the GOP would pick up some senate seats with an outside chance, if everything went right, of taking over the Senate, none of the polls predicted the tsunami wave by the GOP in not just winning the senate easily with room to spare, but also with big gains by the GOP in the House of Representatives and in pickups in the state houses and governorships.

The reliability of the polls was questioned by some, but not by many as you could say one election, as big as it was, do not the polls make. But then you had a couple of big foreign elections that were missed by the pollsters and missed in a huge way.

In March of 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party won in a landslide victory, and re-elected for an un-precedented 4th time Bibi Netanyahu as Prime Minister, that no poll showed would happen. In fact, every single poll in Israel just days before the election had Netanyahu and Likud losing and losing in a big way.

Then in May of 2015, you had polls showing that in Great Britain there was a very tight race for Prime Minister with a good chance the Conservative Party was about to be thrown out of power. What happened, a huge win for the conservative party and re-election of David Cameron as Prime Minister.

So, beginning with the 2014 Midterm elections, and continuing with major elections in Israel and Great Britain in 2015, the polls have been not just wrong, but not even close to predicting the correct results.

You might conclude that it shows you can’t rely on the polls in a major general election not just in the United States but around the world. No, that would be the wrong conclusion. That is one of the secondary conclusions you might surmise from this downward slide of accuracy by major pollsters but not the correct one.

There is one common thread that those variances of what the election results showed with the polling results before hand. In the United States midterms, and in Israel, and in Great Britain, the pollsters were wrong and wrong in a big way, all in one direction. Their polls were all off in determining the strength of the conservatives [party’s/individual candidates] in those countries and in overstating the strength of the liberals [party’s/individual candidates]. Could that possibly be just an amazing coincidence or indicative of skewed polling results that we will be seeing in future elections? Fool us with one bad polling result, shame on you. Fool us with 3 bad polling results, and we still believe in you, shame on us.

Source: Reliability of General Election Polls Continue Downward Slide In One Direction.

Do you follow my reasoning here? Again we have a business based and linked to both the national governments, and the corrupt press, who pays their bills. Yes, there are new difficulties in polling, such as so many people no longer having landline telephones (and others). But while that could well affect accuracy, one would expect it to effect it in both directions, but that’s not what we’re seeing, is it? It’s always favoring the more liberal (American sense) candidate, and never the more conservative (Classically liberal). And so as it becomes an increasingly inaccurate tool, something will have to change like, I don’t know, real reporting, maybe!


signing-constitutionI’m just going to give you a taste of this. The article is fairly long, it’s also of a piece, and not susceptible of abstracting. (At least by me!)

The GOP needs more than cosmetic surgery. It’s either showing signs of great health or is in crisis, or perhaps a little of both. The party controls both houses of Congress and is hitting historic highs in governorships and state legislatures. An array of bright, young, plausible Republican Presidents campaigns for the Oval Office—a far cry. Read More

It’s important to note that the party would be in much worse shape than it otherwise would be  without the Tea Party. And that’s even taking into account that the disgruntled insurgents have cost the GOP some winnable elections, most notably by blocking the Senate candidacy of former Representative and Governor Michael Castle in Delaware. (GOP insiders also conveniently blame non-Tea Party losses on the Tea Party—Todd Aiken, for example, was not a Tea Party guy.) Establishment figures don’t have the greatest record, otherwise we would have Senator Tommy Thompson, and a re-elected Connie Mack and George Allen.

Meanwhile, as Ben Domenech notes, the Tea Party has, in fact, begun to redirect the GOP, even if most Tea Party people express frustration at not accomplishing more. (Granted, his comments on the budget deal might qualify that judgment.) The most recent debate might indicate that a majority of Republicans are starting to understand that our elite media are, as Glenn Reynolds says, “Democratic operatives with bylines,” and Republicans should treat them as such.

Source: RINO-plasty – Online Library of Law & Liberty

That great quote from James Madison is also in there. You know: this one

This disproportionate increase of prerogative and patronage must, evidently . . . [foster] the transformation of the republican system of the United States into a monarchy,  . . .whether it would be into a mixed or an absolute monarchy might depend on too many contingencies to admit of any certain foresight.

In the Middle Ages you were killed for speaking out. Now we just do character assassination

220px-Images-stories-Photos-roger_scruton_16_70dpi_photographer_by_pete_helme-267x397Activist campaigns, which tend to be conducted in the name of the people as a whole, neither consult the people nor show much interest in noticing them—a point that was noticeable to Burke, in considering the insolence of the French revolutionaries. Such campaigns are affairs of elites who are seeking to triumph over real or imaginary adversaries, and who make an impact on politics because they share, in their hearts, the old socialist view that things must be changed from the top downwards, and that the people themselves are not to be trusted now, but only later, when the revolutionary vanguard has completed its task.

Roger Scruton, writing in 2012

That certainly coincides with my experience, and with all I’ve read as well. I would add that Roger Scruton is a man who talks the talk very well indeed and has also walked the walk, his (correct, in nearly all cases) views have cost him much, in career terms, in recognition, and likely money as well.

Just about everything in this speech of his, speaks to me. You should read it carefully, and/or listen to the audio linked in the article, and as you can, apply it to your thinking, and actions.

Free speech is being everywhere shut down so that we will never know who is right – the heretics or those who try to silence them.

To people like me educated in post-war Britain, free speech has been a firm premise of the British way of life.  As John Stuart Mill expressed the point, ‘the peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is that it is robbing the human race, posterity as well as the existing generation.  Those who dissent from the opinion still more than those who hold it.  If the opinion is right they’re deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth.  If wrong, they lose what is almost as great a benefit: the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth produced by its collision with error.’

That famous statement is not the last word on the question, but it is the first word and was during my youth the received opinion of all educated people.  The law, we believed, would protect the heretics, the dissidents and the doubters against any punishments devised to intimidate or silence them, for the very reason that truth and argument are sacred and must be protected from those who seek to suppress them. […]

This takes us back to what John Stuart Mill had in mind.  It is not falsehood that causes the greatest offence but truth – you can endure insults and abuse when you know them to the false but if the remarks that offend you are true, their truth becomes a dagger in the soul.  You cry ‘Lies’ at the top of your voice and know that you must silence the one who utters them.  That is what has happened in the case of Islamophobia. Muslims in our society are often victims of prejudice, abuse and assault and this is a distressing situation that the law strives to remedy.  But when people invent a phobia to explain all criticism of Islam, it is not that kind of abuse that they have in mind.  They wish to hide the truth, to shout ‘Lies’ in the face of criticism and to silence any attempt to discussion.

In my view, however, it is time to bring the truth into the open, including the truth about the holy book itself.  The classical Islamic philosophers, the early jurists and the Sufi poets all tried to interpret the Qur’an so that it would be compatible with life in the real world.  But their efforts were increasingly disapproved and now it is widely held among Orthodox Sunnis that interpretation is no longer permitted, or as the saying is, ‘The gate of each jihad is closed.’ None of the real difficulties are to be discussed, and yet it is just now in Islam’s encounter with Western democracy that discussion is most needed.

Source: In the Middle Ages you were killed for speaking out. Now we just do character assassination

Do read and ponder the article.

Tuesday Miscellany; Mostly Free Market Edition

XISHUANGBANNA, CHINA - MARCH 04:  Prince William, Duke of Cambridge meets a rescued elephant called 'Ran Ran' at the Xishuangbanna Elephant Sanctuary on March 4, 2015 in Xishuangbanna, China. Prince William, Duke of Cambridge is on a four day visit to China. He is the most senior royal to visit China since the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh in 1986. His visit follows on from a successful four day visit to Japan  (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)

XISHUANGBANNA, CHINA – MARCH 04: Prince William, Duke of Cambridge meets a rescued elephant called ‘Ran Ran’ at the Xishuangbanna Elephant Sanctuary on March 4, 2015 in Xishuangbanna, China. Prince William, Duke of Cambridge is on a four day visit to China. He is the most senior royal to visit China since the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh in 1986. His visit follows on from a successful four day visit to Japan (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)

Some odds and ends that have been accumulating.

This is an unusual piece of common sense, especially coming out of Britain, and he’s right.

How good a deal for Britain is it that the president of China got a state visit and a nuclear power station and Prince William got the chance to go on Chinese television and complain about the ivory trade? The Prince was listened to politely, of course, but the Chinese will not give up their enthusiasm for the stuff. The elephant in the room, to misapply that expression, is that only a legal trade in ivory will save the species. Just as cows exist in any numbers only because we eat their flesh and drink their milk, so elephants have a future only if it is profitable to breed them.

Source: Charles Moore’s Notes: If we want to save the elephant, we must legalise the ivory trade » The Spectator

Turkeys voting for Christmas

Almost daily we are told of the intention of Labour and Lib Dem peers to reject legislation proposed by the House of Commons. They must, I suppose, have a death wish.

Before the House of Lords was “reformed”, by the removal of most of the hereditary peers so as to ensure it was full of appointed members, there was a permanent Tory majority in the House. But that Tory majority always understood that it had to bow to the elected chamber. The most appalling Bills produced by Labour governments were voted through every time, even though most of their lordships hated what the Commons had come up with. Convention required that the elected chamber should have its way.

Source: House of Lords Digs its own Grave

Free trade breaks up Monopolies, sometimes even government enforced ones:

Evgeny “Gene” Freidman is no fan of Uber. The increasing popularity of this vehicle-for-hire (or ridesharing) company has lost him millions of dollars. He has even asked New York City taxpayers for a bailout. As difficult as bailing out the big banks was to swallow, bailing out a taxi mogul—who at one point owned more than 1,000 New York City taxi medallions—is an even harder sell. A bailout would be especially outrageous considering that Freidman and his financial backers are actively working to make consumers pay more for fewer options.

Freidman reluctantly took over his father’s modest yellow taxi business as a young man. He brought his experience in Russian finance to the industry, and started to accumulate increasing numbers of taxi medallions using highly leveraged financing. Freidman expanded a company with just a few taxis into a conglomeration of three- to five-car mini-fleets.

As Freidman’s taxi empire grew, he expanded into other cities, including New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Chicago. He gained control of hundreds more medallions that are also now in financial trouble. His willingness to bid on practically any medallion that came up for sale helped drive a rapid increase in medallion prices across the country.

Source: New York’s Taxi King Is Going Down

I also note that I saw this story (almost verbatim) last week about the London black cabs as well, and the French cabbies are rioting about it. But there we can also agree with the Duke of Wellington:

We always have been, we are, and I hope that we always shall be detested in France.

EU Moves Step Closer to Open Tyranny

For the first time since the creation of Europe’s monetary union, a member state has taken the explicit step of forbidding eurosceptic parties from taking office on the grounds of national interest.

Anibal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s constitutional president, has refused to appoint a Left-wing coalition government even though it secured an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament and won a mandate to smash the austerity regime bequeathed by the EU-IMF Troika.

He deemed it too risky to let the Left Bloc or the Communists come close to power, insisting that conservatives should soldier on as a minority in order to satisfy Brussels and appease foreign financial markets.

Source: EU Moves Step Closer to Open Tyranny

All Cultures are Mine

This was before the popular emergence of the idea of cultural appropriation. Nobody told me that books, music, and clothing created by people who didn’t look like me didn’t belong to me, that I was somehow borrowing them. Today, people do tell me this. They tell me that I must tread lightly when engaging in cultural forms not invented by my white ancestors.

I have listened to their arguments, read their theories, and arrived at a conclusion. They are wrong. All cultures are mine.

Source: All Cultures Are Mine

A reminder: there are only two countries in the world that do not have a national costume. England, who we all dress like for important occasions, and the United States, who everybody dresses like the rest of the time. That’s all you need to know about who has the superior culture, it’s another case of a free market.

Still more Free Market Doing its Job

As is well-known by now, one of the side effects of Daraprim, a medication needed by many AIDS and cancer patients, is uncontrollable rage — not because of any chemical properties of the drug itself, but because Martin Shkreli’s Turing Pharmaceuticals raised the price by more than 5,000 percent immediately after purchasing the rights to the medication. Until Shkreli’s greed caused the price to very quickly inflate, the lifesaving pill, which has been on the market longer than Shkreli has been alive, sold for just $13.50 per pill.

Shkreli provided numerous excuses for the price increase, the unfairness of which made headlines for weeks after the rather transparent attempt to effectively hold patients at gunpoint and rob them blind. While “Pharma Bro” ultimately promised to lower prices to an undefined amount at an unspecified point in time — something that has still not happened — another company has taken it upon themselves to completely embarrass the former hedge funder, who described the price increase as necessary.

San Diego-based Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc announced on Thursday that it will be providing an alternative to Daraprim that costs a fraction of the pill’s pre-Shkreli price. The drug will be sold at as low as $99 for a 100-pill supply. Yes, that’s just about a dollar per pill.

Source: Capitalism As It Was Meant To Be

American Recessional

First a powerful Bill Whittle Afterburner

This is the problem that has reduced us from “The Shining City on a Hill”, to just another Zimbabwe. We’ve always had corruption, it’s inherent in an organization of human beings, but we have never so completely and brazenly ignored it.

Then there is this article. Do I necessarily believe it? No? But the very fact that I think it possible, and I do, tells you that the swamp is very high, and the alligators are quite hungry.

America and the coming break point

A revolutionary political earthquake lies up ahead. The popularity of Trump foretells this. We’re feeling the tremors right now. But the feeling of revulsion for the Washington establishment is not yet clear enough and widespread enough in the minds of the people to manifest in a revolutionary “break point.” But I believe such a lack of widespread clarity is the lull before the storm. And the storm is coming in the form of a pervasive economic crash that will shake up Americans in a way they have never before experienced.

It is then that the needed clarity will be achieved. It is in times of great crisis that people are susceptible to a more truthful view of things, and will be more willing to take revolutionary action. If freedom is to be restored in America, it will be at this time when the establishment way of doing things for the past century – political centralization and Keynesian monetary theory – comes under suspicion as highly flawed ideology and political tyranny. It is here when all is chaos and despair that the coming break point will be reached and a chance to restore freedom will be available to us.

When the crisis really hits, when the dollar is dropping like a rock in a dry well, when tanks are in the streets to restore order in scores of new Fergusons and Baltimores pockmarking the country, when unemployment hits 25% and no one believes the BLS lies of 5% anymore, when the Feds are snooping in the skies above with thousands of drones over our own country, when a smarmy President spews out still another unctuous speech from the White House about how “government is here to help you,” then the breaking point will be reached in the minds of the American people.

Source: America and the coming break point « Sago

What happens next? I don’t know, but I would suggest that electing still another clown as president is likely not to be the answer. And the day is coming that the questions will have to be answered. And the penalty points are piling up.


God of our fathers, known of old,
   Lord of our far-flung battle-line,
Beneath whose awful Hand we hold
   Dominion over palm and pine—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

The tumult and the shouting dies;
   The Captains and the Kings depart:
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
   An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

Far-called, our navies melt away;
   On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
   Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
   Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe,
Such boastings as the Gentiles use,
   Or lesser breeds without the Law—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

For heathen heart that puts her trust
   In reeking tube and iron shard,
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
   And guarding, calls not Thee to guard,
For frantic boast and foolish word—
Thy mercy on Thy People, Lord!


Rudyard Kipling 1897


Sowing the Wind: Reaping the Whirlwind

Great Satan’s Girlfriend makes a very valid point. Japan and Germany are friends and allies now. Why? They used to be enemies. Maybe because they found out that America and Britain will ”bring a gun to a knife-fight” to quote the president back when he believed in defense, or was that only against America? In any case, an excellent point

Anydobby watching the Knife Infatada on telly may be struck with the term dispproportionate” – essentially – i.e., knife wielding attackers shot down down by bullets via guns.

It speaks to deterrence, disproportionate force and moral equivalence.

Under the canons of the last 2,500 years of Western warfare, disproportionality was the method by which aggressors were either deterred or stopped. Deterrence — which alone prevented wars — was predicated on the shared assumption that starting a conflict would bring more violence down upon the aggressor than he could ever inflict on his victim. Once lost, deterrence was restored usually by disproportionate responses that led to victory over and humiliation of the aggressive party.

Source: GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD: Moral Equivalence Myth

And here’s one person’s idea of what’s going to happen in Europe, perhaps next spring.

The unsettled Arab refugees are not committing terrorism, they are simply demonstrating. That is how they demonstrate, that’s all, nothing more. What Europe is experiencing now is simple unrest which will die down over time and as the weather cools. Demonstrators, almost without exception, tend to demonstrate only when the weather permits and once the mercury drops below 10oC the demonstrators will thin out and soon be so few that three police is all that will be needed to monitor their antics. If they were to get media coverage there would often be more reporters than demonstrators. But once spring comes and the weather tops 20oC then the numbers start to return and the demonstrations next summer will very likely qualify to be called riots. But even that is not the worst of what Europe will soon be facing. Europe needs to understand that the influx of refugees has only just begun and will slow until next spring when they will follow the frost line as they head north into Germany, France, Britain and the Scandinavian nations where the life is the easiest and the benefits the most generous. But even with the best of benefits, the most gracious hospitality, the nicest neighborhoods, accommodations for Islam as good as any Middle Eastern nation, and department after government department going head over heels to provide and meet even the most contrary set of demands will only strengthen the image of weakness as polite and caring social services is the most definitive sign of weakness to the Islamist.


Let us explain. By going the extra distances to meet or exceed their grandest expectations, this will simply produce further demands. If the government and the people continue to try and meet even the most absurd and grand of demands, the Islamists will interpret such action as being fed by an innate fear which drives this high level of accommodation and striving to please. The Middle East Islamist mindset expects minimal efforts to meet the mere minimalist needs of the people as their governments were designed more to enrich the klepto-politicians rather than meet the peoples’ needs.

He may or may not be right, time will tell. But I would give him at least a 70% chance of being right. Why? See above, and think about it for yourself.

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